A potential combination of fertiliser supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions and a strong El Niño weather pattern could put fresh pressure on global food prices in 2027, according to a warning from JPMorgan. The bank expects global food inflation to reach around 5% in the first half of 2027, compared with about 2.8% in the first half of 2026.
For India, the warning is particularly important because agriculture remains closely linked to the monsoon, while disruptions in global fertiliser markets can increase farming costs and eventually affect food prices.
Why Is JPMorgan Warning About a Food Crisis?
The concern is not necessarily that the world will suddenly run out of food. Instead, JPMorgan's analysis points to the possibility of higher agricultural costs, weaker crop production and tighter food supplies if several risks occur at the same time.
Three factors are at the centre of the warning:
- Fertiliser supply disruptions
- Geopolitical tensions affecting trade and shipping
- A potentially strong El Niño event
Together, these factors could create a difficult environment for farmers and consumers.
Fertiliser Supply Is a Major Concern
Fertiliser is one of the most important inputs in modern agriculture. Any disruption in production or transportation can increase costs for farmers.
JPMorgan estimates that the Middle East accounts for approximately 42% of global urea exports and 27% of ammonia exports. Prolonged disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could therefore affect international fertiliser availability and prices.
Natural gas is another important part of the equation because it is used to produce nitrogen-based fertilisers such as urea. Higher gas prices can increase fertiliser production costs.
If fertiliser becomes too expensive, farmers may reduce application, potentially affecting crop yields.
How Could El Niño Affect Food Production?
El Niño is a climate pattern that can significantly alter rainfall and temperatures across different parts of the world.
A strong El Niño could bring drier conditions to some agricultural regions and excessive rainfall to others, creating risks for crops.
Recent analysis has highlighted particular vulnerability among tropical agricultural commodities, including coffee, cocoa and sugar. India and Thailand, for example, could face risks to sugar production if rainfall patterns become less favourable.
Why India Could Be Particularly Vulnerable
India's agricultural sector depends heavily on the monsoon. An unfavourable rainfall pattern can affect crop yields, farm incomes and food prices.
At the same time, India is exposed to global fertiliser and energy markets. Higher international prices or shipping disruptions can increase the cost of agricultural inputs.
This creates a potential chain reaction:
Fertiliser disruption → Higher input costs → Lower fertiliser use → Crop-yield pressure → Tighter food supplies → Higher food prices
JPMorgan has specifically identified India, Brazil and Indonesia among countries where the combination of fertiliser disruptions and El Niño could be particularly significant.
Could Food Inflation Reach 5%?
JPMorgan expects global food inflation to accelerate to approximately 5% in the first half of 2027, compared with 2.8% in the corresponding period of 2026.
However, this is a risk scenario and forecast, not a certainty. Weather conditions, government policies, fertiliser availability, global trade and crop production will determine how severe the impact ultimately becomes.
What Could It Mean for Indian Consumers?
If agricultural costs rise and crop supplies tighten, consumers could eventually see higher prices for certain food products.
The impact could vary significantly depending on the crop. Products particularly exposed to weather conditions and international commodity markets could experience greater price volatility.
For households, sustained food inflation could increase the cost of everyday groceries and put additional pressure on household budgets.
What About Indian Farmers?
Farmers could face a difficult balancing act if fertiliser and other agricultural inputs become more expensive while crop yields come under weather-related pressure.
Higher input costs can reduce farm profitability, particularly if farmers are unable to pass those costs through to the prices they receive for their produce.
Government intervention, fertiliser availability, irrigation infrastructure and effective agricultural planning could therefore become increasingly important if global supply conditions deteriorate.
A Warning, Not a Prediction of Famine
It is important to understand what JPMorgan's warning actually means.
The analysis points to the possibility of higher food inflation and supply-chain stress, rather than predicting that the world will simply run out of food.
The severity of any potential crisis will depend on how fertiliser markets, energy prices, geopolitical conditions and weather patterns develop over the coming months.
Final Takeaway
The possibility of a strong El Niño occurring alongside fertiliser shortages and geopolitical disruptions creates a significant risk for global agriculture in 2027.
For India, the combination deserves particular attention because of the country's dependence on the monsoon and its exposure to global agricultural input markets.
The key question for 2027 may not simply be whether there is enough food—but whether farmers can produce it at a cost consumers can afford
