Global food security is facing renewed pressure as conflicts and disruptions to major trade routes affect the movement of grain, fertilisers, energy and other agricultural inputs. India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has warned that the combined impact of the Ukraine conflict and the Iran-Gulf conflict could contribute to a major food crisis in the coming months, particularly for economies in the Global South.
Why Fertiliser Is So Important
Modern agriculture depends heavily on fertilisers such as urea, DAP and other nitrogen- and phosphate-based products. When supplies become disrupted or prices rise sharply, farmers can face difficult decisions about how much fertiliser to apply.
A disruption today can therefore have an effect several months later. Higher input costs may influence planting decisions, fertiliser application and ultimately crop yields.
Conflicts Are Disrupting Agricultural Supply Chains
According to Jaishankar, disruptions to grain shipments, particularly through the Black Sea, are an important concern. The region is significant to global agricultural trade, and interruptions can force import-dependent countries to search for alternative supplies.
At the same time, the conflict involving Iran and the Gulf has created additional pressure on energy and fertiliser markets. Research from IFPRI notes that the Middle East accounts for a significant share of global urea exports and that fertiliser exports from the Gulf have been disrupted during the conflict.
The “4F” Problem: Food, Fuel, Fertiliser and Finance
The current situation is not simply about food production. Several pressures can interact:
- Food: Disruptions can affect grain availability and prices.
- Fuel: Higher energy costs can increase transportation and agricultural production costs.
- Fertiliser: Supply disruptions can raise prices and reduce availability.
- Finance: Conflict can increase economic uncertainty and make financing more difficult for vulnerable economies.
Jaishankar has described these interconnected pressures as a broader “4F” challenge — food, fuel, fertiliser and finance.
What Could This Mean for Food Prices?
When agricultural inputs become more expensive, the cost of producing and transporting food can increase. Farmers may respond by reducing fertiliser use, changing crops or reducing planted areas, depending on their circumstances.
However, a food crisis is not inevitable simply because prices or fertiliser supplies are under pressure. Global cereal production remains substantial, and countries can respond through alternative suppliers, strategic reserves, policy measures and adjustments in trade. The impact is likely to vary considerably between countries depending on their dependence on imports and their ability to absorb higher costs.
Why Developing Economies May Be More Vulnerable
Countries that depend heavily on imported food, fertiliser or energy can be particularly exposed to international supply shocks. Higher import bills can place additional pressure on governments, businesses and households.
For lower-income consumers, food-price increases can have a particularly significant effect because food represents a larger share of household spending.
What About India?
India has significant domestic agricultural production and has taken measures to maintain fertiliser availability. Recent reporting from The Indian Express noted that India had not experienced significant fertiliser shortages during the 2026 kharif season, although concerns remained around DAP and complex fertilisers.
This highlights an important distinction: global supply pressure does not automatically translate into an immediate food shortage in India. The eventual impact depends on domestic production, inventories, imports, government policy, international prices and the duration of supply disruptions.
The Bigger Picture
The current situation demonstrates how closely interconnected the global food system has become. A conflict in one region can affect energy supplies, fertiliser production and shipping routes, eventually influencing agricultural costs thousands of kilometres away.
Jaishankar's warning is therefore less about a shortage appearing overnight and more about the possibility that several disruptions could compound one another over the coming months.
Building resilient food systems will require diversified supply chains, reliable agricultural inputs, efficient logistics and cooperation between countries. The ability to maintain access to essential food and farming inputs will remain an important part of global economic and food security.
Source: The Indian Express, September 29, 2026.
